VIDEOS

The new projections for Michigan are showing some real differences from the last report. This video contains detailed information about changes to the winters, where we expect to see the biggest storms, and the projected increased risks around serious wildfire. The challenges are serious, but I would not count Michigan out. People looking for a destination with mild winters should check out this unexpected outlook.

Video published 12/28/2023

New Mexico's climate outlook is challenging- no surprise- but there's a real edge of hope emerging in Northern New Mexico. Check out the details in this video.

Video published 1/11/2024

Check out Iowa's super solid outlook for 2050. There are few areas where outlooks have improved in the NCA5, this right here is one. If you are concerned about food security, this good news for Iowa is good news for you.

Video published 12/14/2023

Indiana, you can't hide your solid climate outlook and your first in the nation infrastructure work.

Video published 2/8/2024

Ohio is projected to shift away from a Midwestern and towards a classic Southern climate- that's a big change! Ohio is high change, but it's also high capacity. This video takes a realistic look at the challenges and opportunities facing Ohio as we approach 2050.

Video published 1/18/2024

The NCA5 outlook for Washington state is very different from what we saw in the NCA4. In this video we learn new information that will help communities build resilience in eastern Washington, which remains very strong, and we identify important emerging challenges in western Washington, along with response actions.

This outlook is hard, but it's got more of an edge to hold for Louisiana than we saw in the NCA4. In this video Dr. Emily checks out projections for heat, precipitation, ag output, sea level rise, and costs for the energy transition.

Wisconsin is looking about as good as it gets in the projections for 2C. Check it out, there's good info on where to expect challenges like extreme storms and wildfire, and where Dr. Emily thinks Wisconsin's got the potential for healthy growth and generational opportunity.

The NCA5 outlook for Idaho is high-change, but in your most populated areas you do show some serious potential for resilience building. Dr. Emily walks you through the projected changes to seasons, precipitation, snowpack, and fire risk.

Minnesota has an interestingly varied climate outlook, with regions of high change and regions of wonderful stability. Let's walk through the state, we'll identify challenges and opportunities for the distinct regions forming up in this state-level outlook.

Lots of details here for the greater Phoenix area, Tucson, and Flagstaff. Bottom line: we're looking at an almost 3 month extension of days over 95 in the cities of southern Arizona, with a full month of that over 105.

Virginia, you've got a solid overall outlook here. To the west, you look awesome. Towards the coast, you're going to be looking at some significant warming, as well as some serious sea level rise issues. Check it out, we'll walk through projected changes to seasonal temps, precipitation, and more, and help you identify risks and actions to take in your area.

Alabama, you're looking at some challenges, but there's a lot of potential to build resilience in this state. And, you've got the most interesting sea level rise impacts in the country, with some surprisingly stable emerging coastline. Get details on the challenges in this video, including locations that are likely to experience big increases in warm nights and deluge-type rains, as well as emerging opportunities north of Mobile.

New York state, this is the wildest outlook in the nation. Definitely the most variation, for better and for worse. We've got a lot of folks in the AR community in New York state, so we've got details on a TON of places in this outlook.

Maryland, you've got an interestingly varied outlook here. To the west, you look awesome. Towards the bay, you're dealing with some extremely serious sea level rise issues. Check it out, we'll walk through projected changes to seasonal temps, precipitation, and more, and help you identify risks and actions to take in your area.

There's still an edge to hold in Maine. But these winter projections are worse than they were in the NCA4. Dr. Emily gives you the straight talk in this outlook, which is heavy on local details & suggested areas for action.

Colorado, you've got a heck of a lot going for you in this outlook. Great outlook for the whole Front Range, Grand Junction is looking nice, most challenging conditions are in the southeast corner of the eastern plains. And you're gonna want to look at the relative stability of your mountain winters- we compare your mountain outlook to other western states. You are looking so strong.

Illinois is an urban and an agricultural powerhouse, and we're facing some pretty serious challenges as we look towards 2C, especially south of Peoria. Throughout the state we're seeing fairly large projected heat increases, particularly in nighttime heat. In specific locations, we've got pretty serious signals for dangerous floods.

In the NCA5 outlook for Oregon we issue our first battle cry, recognizing those who choose to fight for the soil of the Willamette Valley. Their work will matter to us all, as the information we can gather from the NCA5 shows Oregon facing an extraordinary level of change. Only the work we do on the ground can protect Oregon's precious soil. If the soil of Oregon is allowed to be exposed and uncared for during the rapid landscape transformation ahead, we could see a terrible dust bowl emerge.

North Dakota, sometimes it makes me sad to do the research for these outlooks, but your outlook just gets better and better the more pieces we put together. North Dakota is a rising star, a real jewel in my personal favorite part of our nation. If you like eating food, you ought to enjoy this outlook.

Montana, you are not looking too bad here. There are some challenges ahead, but there's also a good edge to hold on the ag side, and your major population centers are looking quite stable. We identify your areas where the fire danger is increasing the most, and give you some key resilience action areas for different parts of the state.

Pennsylvania is looking pretty solid in these projections. Except for the greater Philadelphia area, you're looking relatively low change. And, while Philadelphia is going to be impacted by sea level rise, it's looking way less trashed than the other major northeast coastal cities.

No one should be surprised that Texas is looking rough at 2C. If you're planning on building resilience in Texas, you need to know what you'll be up against. You're facing some of the most extreme and complex challenges in the entire nation.

Wyoming's outlook is improved in the NCA5 from the NCA4. In the NCA4 we saw real threats to Wyoming's mountains, but in these updated figures, we have more hope for some stability in this critical headwaters area. Don't get too comfy though- this state looks to remain pretty darn wild!

In the NCA5 we see a much larger change in the projections for Utah than other states in the region. In this video, we investigate the ominous high-change blob centered over Utah in the updated national climate assessment, and present the tipping point type risks unfolding around the Great Salt Lake.

Sea level rise is the biggest challenge facing New Jersey, by a long shot.  And the worst part is, it won't take extreme scenarios to mess up this state in a big way.  In this video, we look at the most vulnerable areas first, then check out the other change factors projected for New Jersey, which are not too bad.  

Even in high-end sea level rise scenarios, Connecticut still looks super cute.  The biggest change for this state looks like it will come to the winters. 

Inland, Massachusetts has pretty solid climate preservation in the projections and great resilience potential.  But by and large, it's looking pretty rough along the coast, especially around greater Boston.  This video also identifies emerging serious flooding risks associated with the Merrimack River watershed.

Projections for Vermont's climate at 2C, plus resources to learn more about location-specific flooding risks and important work going on in Vermont to strengthen local food systems.

Here we walk through the climate projections on a wide range of factors for New Hampshire, which present both challenges and opportunities for this state.

West Virginia looking strong.

The NCA5 projections give us some meaningful new information for Tennessee.  We see some improvement in the outlook for the higher-elevation parts of the state, and we've got a clearer picture of the hot-season extension facing the west.  

We've got some serious challenges building in parts of South Carolina, and potential opportunities emerging in others.

Southern California's outlook is quite serious for LA, Bakersfield, Blythe, Imperial, and other inland communities.

There are layers of challenge here, including very severe heat increases, drought trend, and more intense, more irregular atmospheric rivers.  We also see a very intense hot spot for deluge-like precipitation appear over Bakersfield.  

In Northern California, we find potential for building long-term resilience.  This region begins south of the Bay Area at about Half Moon Bay, extends to the eastern edge of about Napa, and returns to hug the coast all the way up to Eureka.

We've got some serious challenges building in parts of South Carolina, and potential opportunities emerging in others.

Kentucky is looking at both challenges and potential opportunities in these projections, and the state's responsible care of water and diversified economy are added strengths worth considering.

This outlook for Delaware is extremely difficult, with major implications for regional transportation.  

These projections for Rhode Island show great cool summer preservation, but we are looking at a significant landscape transformation due to the major loss of winter cold duration and intensity.  

Shocker- Mississippi looks hot!

The projections are showing greater increases in heat duration than heat intensity.  And excellent potential for landscape stability in large parts of this state. There is some fascinating resilience potential in the ancient landscapes of this beautiful state.

Dr. Emily shares both the challenges and the opportunities facing all our friends in Missouri.

You won't be shocked that Vegas is projected to pick up a lot more days over 105 by 2C, but Dr. E was very interested in the relative stability she found in other parts of the state.  

For those watching solar field developments, it's worth noting there are major signs for deluge-type rain emerging over Tonopah.  

Kansas is looking at some challenging heat increases in these projections, but this may be an outlook within adaptation range. 

Arkansas. 105+ heat, seriously increased wildfire risks, and deluge signals. 

Nebraska outlook, plus the regional and economic stability that we can visualize more clearly now that we can see where and how Nebraska is in play.  

If you're interested in food systems and you haven't considered Omaha's role in our present and our 2C future, this is a state-level outlook worth studying.

Dr. Emily shares a slice of the talk she gave at ESF's Earth Week 2025, including detailed projection info, as well as ground notes from Rochester to Utica.