3/4/26

Central America Climate Outlook: Critical Tipping Point Indicator

AR's international outlooks have explored several areas where critical tipping point indicators are projected, including northern Europe and Brazil. In this video we look at Central America, broadly defined from the Yucatan to the northwestern edge of Columbia.

Central America is the final region where projections indicate critical tipping point indicators can be found. The projected impacts are most strongly centered on Panama and northwestern Columbia. This outlook explores those projections, and contains references to the other two primary indicator regions.

The outlook for Central America is very difficult at 2C, regardless of tipping point scenario. This is a serious and difficult video.

Links in this video:

Visualization: amocscenario.org

Figures from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/361134395_Interbasin_and_interhemispheric_impacts_of_a_collapsed_Atlantic_Overturning_Circulation/link/633621dc76e39959d6857360/download

Panama Upwelling Failure: https://newsroompanama.com/2026/01/19/for-the-first-time-in-40-years-panamas-deep-waters-did-not-rise-and-the-ocean-system-may-be-collapsing/

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