12/30/25

Utah 2C Climate Outlook: NCA5 Update

In the NCA5 we see a much larger change in the projections for Utah than other states in the region. In this video, we investigate the ominous high-change blob centered over Utah in the updated national climate assessment, and present the tipping point type risks unfolding around the Great Salt Lake.

I heard from many people on the ground regarding my NCA4 Utah video. The feedback was overwhelming- people did not think the NCA4 projections were bad enough to account for the change they were already experiencing. This feedback was consistent and unique to Utah- leading me to believe something is seriously going on there. The community feedback is very important to our understanding- please let us know if you think the NCA5 projections are more in-line with your perceived rate of change.

Here's a link to the NCA5: https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/‍ ‍

To Dustin's Toolset: https://public.tableau.com/app/profil...‍ ‍

And to the paper I used for images and information regarding the Great Salt Lake, with appreciation to Abbot, Baxter, Busche, and Freitas for their important work: https://www.researchgate.net/publicat...

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